Disney's first Star Wars theatrical release in seven years opened Thursday night with $12 million in preview sales. That is the lowest Thursday preview number in the franchise's history, according to data from Comscore.
The previous low was held by Solo: A Star Wars Story, which pulled in $14.1 million in Thursday night previews in 2018. The Mandalorian and Grogu now sits below that mark heading into the Memorial Day weekend.
Box office analysts expect the film to generate around $80 million for its three-day opening weekend and approximately $95 million for the four-day holiday weekend. Less conservative estimates put the three-day figure at $95 million and the holiday weekend total at $115 million. Either range would place it among the smallest openings for a Star Wars film in modern cinematic history. Solo captured $84.4 million during its opening weekend. Since 2015, only Solo has opened to less than $100 million domestically, as reported by CNBC.
The film is based on the hit Disney+ series The Mandalorian and was directed by Jon Favreau, who worked alongside Dave Filoni to bring the original show to the streaming service. Filoni has since become head of Lucasfilm. The production budget for The Mandalorian and Grogu was estimated at around $165 million, which is smaller than the $250 million or higher budgets of previous Star Wars theatrical releases, according to data from The Numbers. That lower cost gives the film a smaller threshold for profitability.
The last Star Wars film in theaters was The Rise of Skywalker in 2019. That film earned more than $1 billion at the box office but was widely criticized by fans and critics. After its release, Disney and Lucasfilm shifted their focus to the Disney+ streaming platform. The Mandalorian premiered just one month before The Rise of Skywalker and became a major success, leading to a series of live-action Star Wars projects made for streaming rather than theaters. Those projects include Andor, Obi-Wan Kenobi, Ahsoka, Skeleton Crew, The Acolyte, and The Book of Boba Fett.
The film is expected to benefit from the popularity of the television show, the long Memorial Day weekend, and limited competition from other new titles, particularly on premium large format screens.
The opening weekend will also serve as a test for the future of Star Wars in theaters. Disney has another Star Wars film, Starfighter, scheduled for 2027. That film will star Ryan Gosling and will be directed by Shawn Levy. How The Mandalorian and Grogu performs over the holiday weekend could shape the studio's approach to future theatrical releases from both the Star Wars and Marvel franchises, which drove much of Disney's global box office dominance during the 2010s.
