The 152nd Kentucky Derby runs Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville, and for the second straight year the race arrives without a clear favorite.
Arkansas Derby winner Renegade holds the lukewarm 4-1 morning-line price, trained by Todd Pletcher, who has won the Derby twice before. The problem for Renegade is the No. 1 post position. No horse has won the Kentucky Derby from that spot since Ferdinand did it in 1986, a streak of 40 years that will weigh on bettors come Saturday afternoon.
That history opens the door for several other horses. Florida Derby winner Commandment sits at 6-1 after winning four straight races, the last two by a neck and a nose, showing a competitive instinct that his connections believe translates to a mile and a quarter. Further Ado, also at 6-1, owns the best speed figures in the field and is coming off an 11-length win in the Blue Grass Stakes. Both Commandment and Further Ado are trained by Brad Cox, a Louisville native.
Defending champion trainer Bill Mott is back with Chief Wallabee at 8-1. Mott won last year's race with Sovereignty. This year he faces a crowded field of top trainers, including Pletcher, Cox, and Bob Baffert. He also faces his own son, Riley Mott, who trains longshots Incredibolt (20-1) and Albus (30-1).
Three international horses have made the trip, two from Japan and one from the United Arab Emirates. Danon Bourbon is listed at 20-1, Six Speed at 50-1, and Wonder Dean at 30-1. History is not on their side. Horses from Japan are 0-for-10 in the Derby. Those from the UAE are 0-for-20.
The most emotionally charged story in the field belongs to So Happy, a California-based colt trained by Mark Glatt. Earlier this year, Glatt lost his wife of 25 years, Dena, to cardiac arrest. When So Happy won the Santa Anita Derby four weeks ago to give Glatt his first-ever Kentucky Derby starter, the 53-year-old trainer spoke in the winner's circle about her. "She got that horse there today," he said. So Happy is listed at 15-1.
The Derby goes Saturday at Churchill Downs. All 20 horses will break from the starting gate in the first leg of horse racing's Triple Crown.
