Iowa holds primary elections Tuesday that will set up a fall campaign both parties say could determine control of the House and Senate, according to NPR.
The state has three competitive House races, an open Senate seat, and a governor's race that political experts say is among a handful nationally that could switch party control this year. Iowa currently sends four Republicans to the House and has two Republican senators. The governor's office is also held by a Republican.
At a spring event for the Iowa Faith and Freedom coalition near Des Moines, Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz told a crowd of roughly 1,100 conservative Christians that the current Republican majority has delivered results. "The last year and four months with President Trump in office, with a Republican Senate and Republican House, we have won more victories than at any time since we have been alive," he said.
Cruz cited falling illegal immigration, reductions in crime rates, and the passage of what he called the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," a sweeping package of tax cuts and spending priorities. He also warned the crowd that Democrats were targeting Iowa specifically. "The Democrats have put a bullseye on the state of Iowa. They're coming after Iowa. They want to turn Iowa blue," he said.
Outgoing Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds pointed to state-level accomplishments including rising test scores, affordability rankings, and wage growth. She framed every major national problem as a product of the Biden administration. "It matters in Iowa, and it matters in D.C., where every single problem that President Trump is currently fixing — inflation, Iran, open borders, illegal immigration — was caused by the Biden administration," she said.
Democrats enter the fall with their own set of numbers. President Trump is carrying record-low approval ratings nationally, and Democrats have posted overperformances in special elections and maintain a polling advantage five months from Election Day. Primary turnout among Democrats has been rising.
At the same time, the national Democratic Party brand remains historically unpopular. Republicans who have notably crossed Trump have been ousted in recent primaries, a sign of how tightly the former and current president holds the party together.
In midterm election years, the party holding national power typically struggles to hold its congressional majority. Both parties appear to be treating Iowa as a test of whether that pattern holds in 2026.
