People released from prison in England and Wales are significantly less likely to commit another crime if they are placed under supervision and required to meet license conditions, according to new research from the University of Strathclyde. The effect is especially strong for those who have never been to prison before.
The study, reported by Phys.org, found that supervision and license conditions reduced reoffending by 15 percent in the first four weeks after release. That is the period when monitoring is most intensive. Over the following three years, reoffending dropped by 5.5 percent, suggesting the effects last well beyond the initial supervision period.
License conditions in England and Wales require released prisoners to maintain good behavior, keep a fixed address, and stay in regular contact with a probation officer. These rules now apply to all individuals released from custody in the country.
Part of the early decline in reoffending comes from prison recalls. Probation officers can send someone back to prison for 14 days if they breach their license conditions. Because recalls physically remove someone from the community, they temporarily suppress offending. But researchers noted this cannot explain why reoffending stays lower years after release, since recall powers are only available in the early months following release.
Dr. Markus Gehrsitz, the lead researcher, said, "Our research suggests that supervision can change the trajectory of offenders who have had limited prior interaction with the justice system. On the other hand, it seems to have little effect on repeat offenders with several prison spells."
The study also found that the length of the original sentence matters. Offenders who served between six and twelve months showed notably lower reoffending rates compared to those released after sentences of two months or less. Researchers attribute this to the fact that longer sentences come with longer license periods and more intensive supervision.
Dr. Sam Grant, a researcher on the project, said, "Offenders released from long sentences have a longer license period. That shows up as lower reoffending."
The types of crime most affected were theft and other offenses that typically do not carry prison sentences. The supervision also led to fewer violent crimes, though that effect faded over time. Researchers said a zero effect on violent crime could not be ruled out one year after release.
The study also found no meaningful difference in how well supervision worked across gender, ethnicity or age groups.
Those with five or more previous prison spells showed little to no behavioral change under supervision, pointing to a clear divide in how effective the policy is depending on a person's history with the criminal justice system.
The research used a new Ministry of Justice dataset that allowed the team at Strathclyde's Fraser of Allander Institute and Department of Economics to follow tens of thousands of de-identified offenders through the system. The study has not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal.
Reoffending rates in England and Wales remain high overall. Recent Ministry of Justice figures show that more than half of adults released from custodial sentences of less than one year are reconvicted within a year.
