Prediction market platform Polymarket has closed its first institutional block trade, a six-figure transaction tied to artificial intelligence computing costs, the company told CNBC exclusively on Tuesday.
The trade was executed between FalconX, a digital asset brokerage, and Anera Labs, a trading technology startup. The two firms traded on a contract linked to the Ornn Compute Price Index, a benchmark that tracks rental pricing for Nvidia's H100 GPU chip, one of the most sought-after processors for running AI workloads.
Block trades are large, privately negotiated transactions executed outside public markets, typically to avoid moving prices. They are a routine feature of major Wall Street trading desks but have only recently begun appearing on prediction market platforms.
Polymarket was quick to distinguish this trade from a similar milestone reached last month by rival platform Kalshi. Kalshi completed what it described as the first block trade on any prediction market platform about five weeks ago. Polymarket, however, said its transaction was the first institutional prediction market trade executed on-chain, since its international platform runs on the Polygon blockchain.
"Prediction markets are emerging as one of the most powerful venues for institutional block trades, and this transaction is proof," said Brooke Rizzetto, head of institutional liquidity at Polymarket, in a statement. "Seeing an institutional counterparty use Polymarket to hedge real GPU compute exposure at scale is exactly the future we have been building toward."
FalconX will serve as a dedicated market maker for future block trades on Polymarket's platforms following this deal. "This transaction highlights the accelerating demand for financial infrastructure in the compute space," said FalconX global co-head of markets Ravi Doshi. "We're proud to collaborate with pioneers like Polymarket to deliver deeper liquidity and clearer price discovery to this crucial, rapidly evolving commodity market."
Polymarket operates two separate platforms. Its international exchange has run on the Polygon blockchain for some time. Its U.S. platform launched in December 2025 after the company had been barred from operating in the country since 2022 for failing to properly register with regulators. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Department of Justice dropped their investigations into Polymarket in July without filing charges. The CFTC now regulates the U.S. platform.
Individual traders drove a surge in prediction market volume over the past year, particularly around the 2024 U.S. election cycle. Platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi are now targeting institutional participants as the next source of growth, and the block trade format is central to that push.
