The United States and Iran have agreed on a framework deal to end hostilities, but experts and shipping companies say a return to normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will take weeks or months, not days.
"Let the oil flow!" President Donald Trump posted to social media after the agreement was announced. He said the deal includes the reopening of the strait to commercial shipping and that the U.S. naval blockade on Iran would be lifted after the agreement is signed on Friday. The price of Brent crude oil fell more than four dollars a barrel following the announcement, according to a report by CBS News.
Despite Trump's announcement, ship-tracking data analyzed by BBC Verify showed that traffic levels remained low in the strait as of Monday. According to ship-tracking website MarineTraffic, only two vessels with active location trackers had exited the waterway since Sunday, a bulk carrier and a tanker. The strait has been closed to most shipping since February 28, with only limited numbers of vessels friendly to Iran permitted passage.
Neil Shearing, group chief economist for Capital Economics, said it remained to be seen whether the deal "represents a fragile truce or a durable settlement." He added that it was likely it will "take some time for oil flows through the Strait to return to pre-war levels." He cited multiple obstacles: tankers are in the wrong positions, oil production and refining facilities need to return to full capacity, and insurance costs for vessels traversing the waterway remain uncertain.
The world's second-largest shipping line, Denmark's Maersk, has five ships stuck in the Gulf because of the conflict. The company said it was too early to assess how the agreement "will impact logistics" and that there is no change to its operations in the region. German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd has four ships stuck in the strait and hopes to get them out over the weekend, once the deal is signed and any remaining mines are cleared.
French President Emmanuel Macron said France and the United Kingdom are ready to lead a multinational mission to help reopen the waterway. Speaking ahead of a G7 meeting, Macron said France would be ready to "send planes, send a frigate, send deminers and … our aircraft carrier, Charles de Gaulle." He said forces could be ready within two or three days. "If the next few days show us that it's good," Macron said, "we will deploy ourselves with the British. We will lead this mission."
Disputes over the deal's terms surfaced quickly. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said the country expects to receive half of its roughly 24 billion dollars in long-frozen funds before final negotiations begin during a 60-day ceasefire extension. A U.S. official said Iran would receive none of the money until it demonstrates compliance with the deal's terms. Israeli officials said the country is not bound by the agreement to end its fight with Hezbollah or withdraw forces from Lebanon, even though Trump, Pakistani mediators and Iran all said the deal includes a cessation of hostilities on all fronts.
Vice President JD Vance addressed the question of Iran's nuclear stockpile in an appearance on CBS Mornings. The International Atomic Energy Agency estimates Iran holds about 900 pounds of highly-enriched uranium believed to be buried under rubble at a nuclear facility struck by U.S. and Israeli forces about a year ago. "We're talking about working with the IAEA and working with the Iranians to go in and destroy that enriched stockpile of material," Vance said. "Whether we play an observer role or whether we play a more active role, these are the sorts of things that we'll figure out in technical talks."
Normally, about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies flow through the Strait of Hormuz. The effective halt to traffic since late February pushed up oil prices globally, affecting petrol, diesel and jet fuel costs. Hundreds of vessels have been stuck in the Gulf, with the threat of sea mines and drone strikes keeping crews from attempting passage.
