LeBron James is closing in on a decision about where he will play next season, and prediction markets give the Miami Heat a 50% chance of landing him.
According to Yahoo Sports, James declined to re-sign with the Los Angeles Lakers and has told teams he would consider signing with a franchise that best fits his needs. The Heat lead both major prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, as of July 22.
The Heat also made an accidental announcement this week. A team spokesperson told ESPN's Shams Charania that the Heat mistakenly posted a scheduled YouTube livestream titled "LeBronJames Introductory Press Conference" set for July 27 while preparing for a possible James signing. The link has since been deleted.
On Polymarket, the Cleveland Cavaliers sit in second place at 26%, followed by the Golden State Warriors at 13% and the Philadelphia 76ers at 9%. On Kalshi, the 76ers rank second at 10%.
James' agent Rich Paul of Klutch Sports went through a longer list of teams on his podcast "Game Over" with Max Kellerman, writing options on a whiteboard that included the 76ers, Heat, Minnesota Timberwolves, Cavaliers, Warriors, and New York Knicks. That list has since narrowed. Charania reported on July 14 that the focus had tightened to three teams.
"There's a focus on Cleveland, Miami and Philadelphia," Charania said in that report. " ... This could be any day, any week, now."
Charania also reported that executives from interested teams have been sending voice notes to Paul, who then passed them along to James directly.
Kalshi gives a 45% chance James signs before July 23, rising to 78% before July 27 and 88% before July 29. The market puts the probability at 95% before August 9.
James, the all-time NBA leading scorer, spent multiple stints with the Cavaliers and Lakers across his career. Many observers believe he will return to his hometown Cleveland to finish his career, though Paul's public discussions suggest the decision remains open.
