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SpaceX Valuation Debated as Anthropic Closes Gap for Largest 2026 IPO

Prediction market data shows Anthropic, with annualized revenue on track to top $65 billion, rapidly challenging SpaceX for the year's biggest market debut.

Federal Register 2012-01-27: Volume 77, Issue 18.Digitized from IA1532625-07.Previous issue: sim_federal-register-find_2012-01-26_77_17.Next issue: sim_federal-register-find_2012-01-30_77_19.

Subjects: Public Administration; Government Documents; microfilm
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By Free News Press Editorial Team
Published August 18, 2026 at 1:59 PM PDT

SpaceX went public on the Nasdaq on June 12, opening at $150 per share after pricing at $135 on June 11. The offering covered 555.6 million shares and valued the company at $1.78 trillion. By the end of its first trading day, the stock closed at $160.95, a 19.2% gain from its IPO price, pushing its market capitalization to $2.1 trillion.

The stock climbed further in the weeks that followed, peaking around $225, before falling to lows near $104 as investors worried about lockup expirations and capital expenditure plans. As of the most recent data from Yahoo Finance, shares have recovered to $146, giving SpaceX a market cap of $1.93 trillion.

Not everyone is convinced that valuation is justified. NYU professor and media commentator Scott Galloway has called SpaceX crazy overvalued, arguing the stock is worth somewhere between $10 and $30, according to Business Insider.

Others see it differently. Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, spoke about the stock on Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid. "In the end, betting against Elon Musk has been a fool's errand time and time again, and I think that's probably true this time," Essaye said. "So yes, I am a long-term bull on SpaceX. However, you better buckle up for some interim volatility, because we know this name is going to be wild."

SpaceX may not hold its position as the year's largest IPO for long. Anthropic, the AI company and OpenAI rival, is increasingly seen as a contender for that title. Prediction market platform Polymarket shows Anthropic closing the gap with SpaceX ahead of a potential fourth quarter debut.

Bloomberg reported late Monday that Anthropic's annualized revenue for 2026 is on track to top $65 billion, up from a $47 billion pace in May. Anthropic is currently valued at approximately $1 trillion, according to Yahoo Finance private markets data. OpenAI, which could also go public later this year, is valued at about $894 billion but does not appear in Polymarket's current data as a contender for the largest IPO of 2026.

The race for the year's largest IPO now appears to be a two-company contest. SpaceX holds the current record, but Anthropic's accelerating revenue and a potential late-year listing date could change that before December.

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Subjects: Public Administration; Government Documents; microfilm
Federal Register 2010-12-06: Volume 75, Issue 233…      Spacex Nasdaq    Wikimedia Commons (Public domain)