Brazilian authorities are investigating whether a surge of wildfires in the Amazon rainforest involves coordinated criminal activity, including a possible connection to the country's presidential election. The fires have spread across parts of northern Brazil, covering the city of Manaus in thick smoke and disrupting daily life ahead of the October 25 runoff.
Environment and Climate Change Minister João Paulo Capobianco said investigators are examining evidence that some fires were deliberately started in protected forest areas. Officials have not established who was responsible or whether the incidents were politically motivated.
The investigation comes during a closely contested election between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Their campaigns have exchanged criticism over environmental protection as firefighting teams struggle to contain the blazes.
Amazon Fire Outbreaks Rise Sharply
The scale of the fires has increased dramatically during October, particularly in Amazonas state.
According to Brazil's National Institute for Space Research, Amazonas recorded more than 1,600 fire outbreaks during the first half of October. That compares with 874 during the entire month of October 2025.
Another monitoring system, operated by Brazil's Management and Operational Center for the Amazon Protection System, recorded approximately 1,600 fire events between October 1 and October 12.
That represented an increase of about 260% compared with the same period in 2025, when 444 events were detected.
The figures come from different monitoring systems and periods, so they should not be treated as identical measurements.
Fire activity was already elevated in September, when satellite monitoring identified more than 3,700 outbreaks in Amazonas. That was nearly four times the number recorded during the same month a year earlier.
However, officials have noted that 2025 experienced unusually low fire activity. This makes comparisons with last year particularly striking without necessarily establishing that 2026 is the worst fire season on record.
The fires have also affected other parts of the Amazon, including Pará state, where deforestation and agricultural burning have long been environmental concerns.
Minister Raises Concerns About Deliberate Fires
Capobianco visited affected areas on October 11, accompanied by Integration and Regional Development Minister Waldez Góes.
During an aerial inspection, officials observed numerous fires burning in forested regions far from established agricultural areas.
The environment minister said the locations raised suspicions because the fires appeared in protected forests that would not ordinarily be associated with routine agricultural burning.
Speaking to Agence France-Presse, Capobianco described the suspected activity as a "deliberate criminal act" intended to damage forest areas and potentially facilitate illegal land occupation.
He also raised the possibility that the timing could be related to Brazil's election campaign.
The minister emphasized that an electoral connection remained a theory rather than an established finding.
Investigators must determine whether the fires were independently started, connected to illegal land clearing or part of a coordinated effort.
Authorities have not publicly identified a political party, candidate or campaign as responsible for starting the fires.
Federal Investigators Examine Possible Criminal Activity
Brazil's federal government has expanded the investigation to include multiple law enforcement and intelligence agencies.
The Federal Police, Federal Highway Police, Amazonas Civil Police and Brazilian Intelligence Agency are participating in efforts to identify those responsible.
According to Agência Brasil, authorities had opened 120 investigative procedures involving suspected criminal conduct by October 14.
The investigations are examining how fires started, whether individuals acted together and whether illegal activities contributed to the destruction.
Officials are particularly concerned about ignition points in remote forests, where firefighting crews face difficult access and limited infrastructure.
Brazilian law provides penalties for illegally setting forest fires, including fines, property restrictions and possible criminal prosecution.
Capobianco has called for stronger enforcement and accountability, warning that repeated illegal burning can encourage further destruction if offenders face no consequences.
The investigation remains ongoing, and the existence of multiple suspicious fires does not by itself prove an organised political campaign.
Smoke Disrupts Life in Manaus
The environmental emergency has had immediate consequences for residents of Manaus, the capital of Amazonas.
The city, home to approximately 2.3 million people, has experienced several days of severe smoke pollution.
Thick haze has reduced visibility and raised concerns about respiratory illnesses, particularly among children, older residents and people with existing breathing conditions.
Public schools suspended in-person classes as air quality deteriorated. Educational institutions, including parts of Amazonas State University and the Federal Institute of Amazonas, also interrupted classroom activities.
Residents have faced difficulties with outdoor work, travel and other daily routines.
Smoke from forest fires contains fine particulate matter that can penetrate deep into the lungs. Exposure can aggravate asthma, cardiovascular disease and other health problems.
Authorities have encouraged residents to limit outdoor exposure during periods of severe pollution.
The Amazonas state government has declared emergencies in 36 municipalities because of fires and worsening weather conditions.
A temporary ban on burning has also been introduced as officials attempt to prevent additional outbreaks.
Firefighters and Aircraft Deployed
The federal government has mobilized aircraft, firefighting teams and additional resources to contain the fires.
By October 14, officials reported that 11 aircraft had been made available for operations in Amazonas.
The equipment included helicopters, logistical support aircraft and a Brazilian Air Force KC-390 capable of carrying water for firefighting missions.
Approximately 290 firefighters were working in the field, with another 40 federal personnel being sent to reinforce the response.
Authorities reported that 292 fires had been extinguished since the beginning of the fire season, although several active incidents remained.
Capobianco said officials had observed signs of improvement in the number of new fires but warned that conditions remained serious.
The minister also explained that wind patterns were carrying smoke toward Manaus from fires farther away.
That means air quality may remain poor even when firefighting crews successfully contain blazes near the city.
Election Raises Political Tensions
The wildfire emergency has emerged during an unusually competitive presidential election.
In the first round on October 4, Flávio Bolsonaro received approximately 47.03% of valid votes, while Lula secured 45.16%, according to Brazil's Superior Electoral Court.
Neither candidate received the majority needed to win outright, sending the election to a second round scheduled for October 25.
The candidates represent different approaches to environmental policy, reflecting longstanding disagreements over land use, agricultural development and forest protection.
During Jair Bolsonaro's presidency from 2019 to 2022, Amazon deforestation increased substantially, while environmental enforcement policies faced widespread criticism.
Deforestation subsequently declined under Lula's administration, although illegal logging, land grabbing and agricultural expansion continue to threaten forest areas.
The current fires have provided another subject for political confrontation.
São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, a conservative ally of the Bolsonaro political movement, criticized Lula's administration over its handling of the emergency.
The federal government has emphasized its deployment of firefighting resources and its ongoing criminal investigations.
Environmental policy remains an important campaign issue, but no evidence presented publicly establishes that either presidential candidate directed or encouraged the fires.
Climate Conditions Increase Fire Risks
Scientists say the fires are occurring under weather conditions that can make the Amazon particularly vulnerable.
The El Niño climate pattern can reduce rainfall in parts of the Amazon and contribute to hotter, drier conditions.
Climate change has also increased the risk of extreme heat and drought, creating conditions in which vegetation can ignite and fires can spread more rapidly.
However, climate conditions alone generally do not explain the initial ignition of Amazon forest fires.
Unlike some other ecosystems, the humid Amazon rainforest is not naturally adapted to frequent burning.
Many fires are started by people clearing agricultural land, maintaining pastures or preparing areas for cultivation.
When drought makes surrounding vegetation unusually dry, these fires can escape into nearby forests.
Illegal land clearing can further increase vulnerability by removing trees, opening the forest canopy and reducing moisture.
Repeated burning damages vegetation and makes affected areas more susceptible to future fires.
Amazon Forest Protection Remains a Major Concern
The Amazon rainforest plays an important role in the global climate system by storing large amounts of carbon and influencing regional rainfall.
Its forests also support extraordinary biodiversity and provide homes and livelihoods for Indigenous peoples and other communities.
Widespread burning releases greenhouse gases, destroys habitats and damages ecosystems that may take decades to recover.
Scientists have warned that continued deforestation, drought and repeated fires could weaken the rainforest's ability to recover from environmental damage.
The immediate challenge for Brazilian authorities is to control the fires while identifying whether criminal groups deliberately started them.
The larger investigation will also examine whether coordinated activity contributed to the rapid increase in outbreaks.
With the presidential runoff scheduled for October 25, the government faces pressure to provide clear answers about the fires without treating unproven political suspicions as established facts.
Federal investigators have opened 120 procedures, and firefighting operations remain active across Amazonas. The findings of those investigations will determine whether the suspected coordinated activity can be substantiated.