World population growth is slowing faster than many realize, and in dozens of countries it has already reversed, according to a report by Phys.org. Birth rates have fallen below the replacement level in most of the world, including across Europe, East Asia, and Australia.
The global total fertility rate has more than halved since 1950. Average birth rates for OECD countries now sit at 1.46 births per woman, well below the 2.1 required for generational replacement. World population decline is projected by the mid-2080s.
Several countries are already there. China is now in its fourth year of population decline. South Korea has been declining since 2019 with near-global record low birth rates. Germany has seen deaths outnumber births since 1972. Japan, Greece, Italy, Cuba, and Thailand are also among those experiencing depopulation. Without immigration, the United Kingdom would face the same trend. Canada has seen depopulation following immigration controls.
The shift marks a dramatic reversal from fears that dominated public debate just decades ago. In his 1968 book The Population Bomb, Paul Ehrlich warned that the 1970s would bring "people, people, people, people" and an overpopulation "cancer" resulting in famine and war. That predicted catastrophe never arrived. Concerns have since shifted in the opposite direction, toward depopulation and the economic and national security problems it can create.
One major driver of the change is that people are simply living longer. Advances in health and medical technologies, including immunization, have extended lifespans significantly since the 1950s. Populations are aging as a result, with fewer working-age people to replace those who retire.
That demographic shift puts pressure on government finances. In Australia, individual income taxpayers are the top source of federal government revenue. Too few working-age people replacing retirees can force governments to provide more services with fewer financial resources. The concern has been enough to prompt direct appeals from politicians. In 2004, Australian treasurer Peter Costello famously said, "Have one for mum, one for dad, and one for the country."
The conversation is not limited to Australia. Everyone from Elon Musk to Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to the pope has weighed in on declining fertility rates in recent years. Australia is estimated to be about a generation away from joining the depopulation club without sustained immigration.
