Ten years ago this month, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. The June 23, 2016 referendum produced a 52% majority for leaving, representing more than 17 million votes. The decision led to what ABC News described as the most dramatic shake-up of the U.K. economy and society since World War II.
The actual process of leaving took nearly five more years after the vote. Brexit grew out of frustration with the EU and the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis. Supporters argued that the U.K. would be revitalized outside the EU and better able to focus on domestic priorities. Opponents warned of economic disruption and damage to the country's international standing.
A decade on, experts say the British economy is between 4% and 8% smaller than it would have been had the country remained in the EU. That gap would have translated into higher living standards and billions more in funding for public services, including the National Health Service. Brexit campaigners had promised the NHS an extra 350 million pounds, equivalent to about $468 million, per week. That pledge was displayed on their campaign bus.
"Brexit has made the U.K. economy smaller than it otherwise would have been," said Jonathan Portes, a professor at King's College London. "The effect has not been a sudden collapse, but a gradual and cumulative drag on trade, investment and productivity," he wrote in an article for The UK in a Changing Europe think tank.
Merchants have complained about the hurdles involved in trading with European neighbors. The 27-nation EU remains by far the U.K.'s biggest trading partner. While no tariffs are imposed on British goods entering the EU, significant non-tariff barriers remain, including customs paperwork, border certifications, and visa restrictions. Major trade deals that Brexit supporters promoted, most notably one with the United States, have not materialized.
Brexit supporters argue the decision cannot be judged in the short term and that the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and more recent conflicts have complicated any fair assessment. Political identities shaped by the referendum remain strong on both sides.
