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Bitcoin is struggling to hold above $60,000. The coin is down 20 percent from its May 30 high, and two developments in late June made a quick recovery less likely.
According to a report by Yahoo Finance, the first problem came from Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. On June 29, the company authorized a $1.2 billion "Bitcoin monetization program" to ease the market's concerns about the ongoing viability of the digital asset treasury company in light of Bitcoin's decline. That program lets Strategy sell Bitcoin to fund its dividend and interest payments, build cash reserves, and finance stock buybacks. The company had previously signaled it would not sell its holdings.
The second factor is the new Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh. His first policy meeting on June 17 left interest rates on hold while leaving the door open to a rate hike before year-end. Tighter dollar liquidity is a headwind for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Despite those pressures, historical data offers some reason for patience. Since 2013, Bitcoin has closed nine of its 13 Julys in positive territory, with a median gain of 8.2 percent. The bear market years stand out. July 2018 saw a gain of 21 percent, and July 2022 produced a gain of 17 percent.
This past June was worse than the historical average. Bitcoin's median return for June is essentially flat at a loss of 0.5 percent. In every prior instance in which the coin lost value for more than one month in a row leading up to July, the month's return was strongly positive, though never enough to fully erase the prior losses.
Still, seasonal patterns carry real limits. Factors like spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund flows, asset fundamentals, and upcoming catalysts tend to have a larger influence on price than calendar history. Holders watching for a July rebound may find any gains fall short of erasing recent losses, given the pressure from Strategy's selling program and the Fed's posture on rates.
Warsh has not yet scheduled his next public remarks, and Strategy has not said how much Bitcoin it plans to sell under the new program or on what timeline.
