The 2026 Open Championship begins Thursday at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England. The first tee times are scheduled for 1:35 a.m. ET.
Scottie Scheffler enters as the defending Open Championship winner and the betting favorite at +750. He is set to tee off at 4:58 a.m. ET. Rory McIlroy sits second on the odds board at +950. The last time the Open Championship was held at Royal Birkdale, in 2017, Jordan Spieth won the title.
Englishmen Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick are both listed at +1500. Jon Rahm is at +2000, Xander Schauffele at +2500, and Robert MacIntyre at +2700. No other golfer is currently listed lower than +3000.
According to CBS Sports, a computer model built by DFS pro Mike McClure at SportsLine has simulated the tournament 10,000 times. The same model has correctly nailed 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters, last year's PGA Championship, and last year's Open Championship.
The model projects Fleetwood, despite his relatively short odds, to stumble and not finish in the top five. Fleetwood does have two top-five finishes at the Open Championship but also missed the cut in 2024 and finished outside the top ten in 2025. The last time the event was held at Royal Birkdale, he finished 27th. He has no finish better than T11 in any major this year.
On the other side, the model projects Ludvig Aberg as a top-three contender despite odds of +3300. This will be just Aberg's third British Open appearance. He finished in the top 25 at the event last year and recorded a T4 at the PGA Championship this season. The model points to his standing as one of the tour's best drivers in both distance and accuracy as a key factor at Royal Birkdale.
