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Cooling Inflation Data Reduces Odds of Federal Reserve Rate Hike in September

Silver prices have climbed 70% year over year as traders watch today's Producer Price Index report for further signals.

The Board of Governors discuss proposed rules on prudential standards for foreign banking organizations and resolution plan requirements for foreign and domestic banking organizations. www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/boardmeetings/20190408...
The Board of Governors discuss proposed rules on …      Federal Reserve    Federalreserve / Wikimedia Commons (Public domain)
By Free News Press Editorial Team
Published August 13, 2026 at 2:01 PM PDT

Traders scaled back bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September after Wednesday's consumer price index report showed annual inflation cooling slightly, even as the headline monthly reading ticked modestly higher in July.

According to CNBC, energy and airline prices continued to feel upward pressure tied to supply shocks from the Iran war. Crude prices have also risen this week, creating potential upside risk for next month's inflation report. On the other hand, lettuce saw its largest month-over-month price decline on record after a cyclospora outbreak spooked consumers. The S&P 500 broke a losing streak following the CPI release.

Yahoo Finance Fed correspondent Jennifer Schonberger said the cooling report "bolsters the case for the Federal Reserve to wait. It's hard to see them hiking in September now that we've had two back-to-back months of cooling inflation."

Schonberger added that today's Producer Price Index report, combined with the July employment and CPI data, will help clarify the picture heading into the Fed's September meeting. "I think there's still question marks about what's going to happen in September based on what we see on PCE numbers, ... but at this point it's hard to see them hiking based on the data we have right now," she said.

The PPI report, which tracks wholesale inflation, was set for release Thursday morning. It represents another data point the Fed will weigh before its next rate-setting meeting.

Meanwhile, silver prices opened at $65.46 per ounce Thursday morning before slipping to $65.23 as of 8:11 a.m. ET, according to Yahoo Finance. That still puts the metal up 70.2% compared to one year ago. Silver's year-over-year growth was as high as 173.3% on May 14 earlier this year.

The Treasury Department also reported Wednesday that the U.S. budget deficit hit its highest level in more than half a decade, adding another variable to an already complicated economic backdrop.

Stock futures were slightly higher Thursday morning following a mixed session on Wall Street the day before.

A map of the twelve federal reserve districts.
A map of the twelve federal reserve districts.      Federal Reserve    US Federal Reserve / Wikimedia Commons (Public domain)