The Detroit Tigers and Tampa Bay Rays close out a three-game series Wednesday afternoon at Comerica Park, with first pitch scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. The first two games produced identical 4-1 final scores, with Tampa winning Monday and Detroit taking Tuesday's game.
The Rays enter Wednesday with the best record in the American League at 78-53. The Tigers sit at 62-70, good for fourth in the AL Central. Detroit has won four of five meetings against Tampa this season.
According to CBS Sports, the pitching matchup features two starters with very different recent histories. Troy Melton takes the mound for Detroit carrying a 7-2 record and a 1.60 ERA. He has been one of the better pitchers in baseball since being called up in late May. However, he is coming off one of his worst outings of the season. In his start last Friday, his earned runs allowed, hits allowed, home runs given up and walks issued were all among the three highest totals across his 15 starts in 2026.
Freddy Peralta starts for Tampa Bay. He holds a 5-11 record and a 5.33 ERA overall. Since being acquired by the Rays at the trade deadline, he has struggled, posting a 7.17 ERA across four starts with the club. Notably, the over has hit in all four of those starts.
The SportsLine projection model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, entered Week 23 of the season on a 49-34 run on all top-rated MLB picks. The model projects the two teams to combine for 8.7 total runs and leans toward the over on the total of 8.
The model's case for the over draws on trends from both sides. For Tampa, the total has been eclipsed in nine of their last 15 games, a 60 percent rate. For Detroit, the over has hit in 12 of their last 20 games against American League opponents, also at 60 percent. Across the last 11 meetings between these two teams, the over is 6-4-1.
Detroit is listed as the slight favorite on the money line at -118. The line reflects home-field advantage and the Tigers' stronger recent performance in this series, even as Tampa holds the better overall record in the league.
The series finale caps a stretch that has been tightly contested despite the lopsided records. Both teams have won at least one game, and the pitching matchup Wednesday sets up as a test for two starters entering the game with something to prove after difficult recent outings.
