Israeli Election Exit Polls Show Deadlock Between Netanyahu and Eisenkot

Israel's parliamentary election ended Tuesday, October 27, 2026, without a clear winner, as exit polls showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot falling short of the seats needed to form a government. The results point toward difficult coalition negotiations that could determine whether Netanyahu remains in power.

The first exit polls from Israel's major television networks gave Eisenkot's opposition bloc a narrow advantage. However, updated projections during the night showed the two sides moving closer together, with neither securing the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-member Knesset.

Netanyahu's Likud party was projected to remain the largest individual party, despite the uncertainty surrounding his ability to assemble another governing coalition.

The election also produced a significant result for Arab-led political parties, which were projected to win a combined 17 to 18 seats. Their parliamentary representation could influence efforts to form a government, although political divisions make an agreement uncertain.

Exit Polls Show a Divided Parliament

The first projections released after polls closed at 10 p.m. showed a closely divided electorate.

Channel 13 initially estimated that Eisenkot's opposition bloc would win 53 seats, compared with 50 for Netanyahu's coalition. The remaining 17 seats were projected to go to Arab-led parties.

Channel 12 placed the opposition at 52 seats, Netanyahu's bloc at 50 and Arab-led parties at 18.

Both networks predicted that Likud would remain the largest party, winning approximately 24 or 25 seats.

The numbers changed as broadcasters revised their exit polls using additional information.

Updated figures from Israel's public broadcaster Kan and Channel 13 subsequently placed the two principal blocs at approximately 51 seats each. Another updated Channel 12 projection gave Netanyahu's bloc a narrow advantage.

The changes demonstrated how closely divided the election remained and why the early projections could not establish a winner.

Reuters reported that the revised results left Netanyahu and Eisenkot competing for an opportunity to form the next government. Neither leader had a confirmed parliamentary majority.

The figures remain projections rather than official election results. Israel's Central Elections Committee is responsible for counting votes and determining the final distribution of parliamentary seats.

Arab-Led Parties Could Play a Major Role

One of the election's most significant developments was the projected increase in representation for Arab-led parties.

The Joint List and Ra'am were expected to win a combined 17 to 18 seats, potentially setting a record for their parliamentary representation.

The Joint List was projected to receive approximately 10 or 11 seats, while Ra'am was expected to secure seven.

The results reflected strong participation among Arab citizens of Israel, who account for roughly one-fifth of the country's population.

Supporters of the Joint List gathered in Nazareth on election night to celebrate the early projections. Similar gatherings took place in other communities as party representatives responded to the apparent gains.

The projected results could leave Arab-led parties with considerable influence over the next government's formation.

However, their potential role presents a political challenge.

Several major opposition parties have previously opposed forming a coalition government that includes Arab-led factions. Netanyahu and his allies have also rejected relying on their support.

One possibility would involve an opposition-led minority government that receives outside parliamentary support from Arab-led parties.

Such an arrangement would not necessarily require those parties to hold cabinet positions. They could instead support certain votes or abstain from decisions that might otherwise bring down the government.

Whether any of the parties would agree to such an arrangement remains uncertain.

Voter Turnout Reaches Highest Level in Decades

The election attracted exceptionally high voter participation.

Israel's Central Elections Committee reported turnout of 77.7% as of 10 p.m. Tuesday, representing approximately 5.7 million voters.

That figure was significantly higher than the 70.6% recorded at the same hour during the 2022 election.

It was also the highest turnout reported at that stage of an Israeli national election since 1999.

The number was considered near-final because voters already waiting in line when polling stations closed were still permitted to cast their ballots.

The unusually high participation reflected the importance voters placed on the country's political direction.

The election was the first national parliamentary vote since the Hamas-led attacks on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent wars.

Security, government accountability, military policy and the country's political leadership were major subjects throughout the campaign.

Netanyahu's opponents criticized his government's handling of the October 7 attacks and subsequent events. His supporters emphasized his leadership during the conflicts and his approach to national security.

The election offered voters a chance to express their views after years of political disputes, security crises and public demonstrations.

Netanyahu and Eisenkot Offer Competing Responses

Netanyahu responded to the early results by emphasizing Likud's position as the largest party in parliament.

He called for the creation of a strong right-wing government and argued that his political camp had received substantial support from voters.

His position reflected the fact that Likud was projected to win more seats than any other individual party, even if its broader coalition lacked a majority.

Eisenkot interpreted the results differently.

The former military chief and leader of the Yashar party argued that voters had rejected Netanyahu's leadership. He called on the prime minister to leave political office and allow a new government to take shape.

Eisenkot's party was projected to become one of the largest factions in the next Knesset, although it remained behind Likud in the major exit polls.

Democrats leader Yair Golan also welcomed the projections, saying his party was prepared to work with political allies to establish an alternative government.

The statements illustrated the competing interpretations of the election.

Netanyahu highlighted his party's strength, while opposition leaders emphasized the combined support received by parties seeking to replace him.

Neither argument, however, settles the question of which candidate can assemble a parliamentary majority.

Why Israel May Face Weeks of Coalition Negotiations

Israel uses a system of proportional representation in which voters select political parties rather than directly electing a prime minister.

The 120 Knesset seats are distributed among parties that receive enough votes to pass the national electoral threshold.

Because no single party usually wins an outright majority, governments typically depend on coalitions involving several factions.

Following the official results, President Isaac Herzog will consult representatives of the elected parties.

The president is expected to assign the task of forming a government to the lawmaker considered most capable of securing sufficient parliamentary support.

That person does not automatically have to lead the largest party.

Instead, the decision depends largely on recommendations from the parliamentary factions and the likelihood of forming a workable coalition.

The designated candidate generally receives 28 days to negotiate an agreement, with a possible extension of up to 14 days.

If those negotiations fail, the process can move to another candidate or further parliamentary procedures.

Continued failure to establish a government could eventually lead to another election.

Israel has experienced repeated political deadlocks in recent years. The country held five national elections between April 2019 and November 2022.

That history demonstrates the difficulty of building stable governing coalitions when competing political blocs are closely matched.

Official Results Will Determine the Next Steps

The final allocation of parliamentary seats could differ from the initial exit polls.

Small changes in vote totals can affect whether parties cross the electoral threshold and how seats are distributed among those that qualify.

Votes cast through special arrangements, including ballots from soldiers and other eligible voters away from ordinary polling stations, must also be counted.

The final results are expected in the coming days, although negotiations over a government could continue considerably longer.

Netanyahu may remain in office in a caretaker capacity while the political process continues.

For Eisenkot, securing support from parties outside his immediate opposition alliance could be necessary to establish a governing majority.

The strong projected representation of Arab-led parties adds another complication to those discussions.

Israel's next government will depend not simply on which party wins the most seats, but on whether rival factions can reach agreements that command enough support in the Knesset.

With neither principal bloc securing a majority in the exit polls, the official vote count and subsequent coalition negotiations will determine who leads Israel after the October 27 election.