Aston Villa secured their return to the Champions League on Friday after a 4-2 Premier League victory over Liverpool, last season's league champions. The result pushed Unai Emery's side into fourth place, leapfrogging Liverpool and moving out of reach of sixth-placed Bournemouth, according to BBC Sport.
The result carried extra weight for Villa after last season ended in painful fashion. On the final day in 2025, a refereeing mistake by Thomas Bramall denied Morgan Rogers an opener at Manchester United, and Villa lost 2-0 while also having Emiliano Martinez sent off. That defeat cost them a top-five finish on goal difference.
Despite the Champions League qualification, Villa remain a statistical outlier in the Premier League table. According to Opta's expected table, Emery's side should be sitting 12th, not fourth. They are eight places and 15 points better off than their expected position, making them the highest overperforming team in the league. Sunderland and Everton are the only other sides overperforming by more than two places.
The numbers behind Villa's season tell an unusual story. Their 54 goals rank seventh in the league, below 10th-place Chelsea's 55. Their 471 shots ranks ninth. Their shot conversion rate of 11 percent, however, is bettered only by Brentford at 14 percent, Manchester City at 13 percent, and Arsenal at 13 percent.
Villa's expected goals figure sits at 46.42, meaning they have scored 7.58 more goals than the model would predict. That xG total is by far the lowest among their closest rivals in the table, with the rest of the top six all recording an xG above 58. Their 15 goals from outside the box make up 28 percent of their total, with Bournemouth and Fulham the only other clubs above 20 percent in that category.
They have also created 84 big chances and converted only 24, a rate of 29 percent that is the lowest in the league. Nottingham Forest, by comparison, have converted a league-high 46 percent of their big chances.
Villa have balanced their league push with a run to the Europa League final, their first appearance in a major European final since winning the European Cup in 1982. The final against Freiburg is scheduled for Wednesday in Istanbul.
Emery spoke about the demands of competing across two competitions. "I am so demanding. Competing on Thursdays and Sundays are not excuses," he said. "In our experience in three years, we have more or less achieved our objectives. There are lots of things we are trying to improve and the club is working for it. I want to build our own way and with our possibilities and our capacity to be facing the better teams in the league or in the world in Europe. I have a good balance in my mind about how we are doing."
Wednesday's Europa League final in Istanbul against Freiburg now becomes the next major moment for the club.
