Antarctic Surface Melt Could Increase Tenfold by 2100, Study Warns

New research projects that surface melting across Antarctica could increase tenfold by the end of this century, with the area affected growing by more than 10 percent if global greenhouse gas emissions continue on their current path.

The study, published in the journal Nature Communications, was led by researchers from the Antarctic Research Center at Te Herenga Waka, Victoria University of Wellington. According to Phys.org, the research used climate models to compare outcomes under different emissions scenarios, from aggressive cuts to business-as-usual warming.

The results showed a stark gap between futures. Under low-emissions conditions, where global average temperature increases stay well below 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, melt could stabilize near current levels. Under higher-emissions paths, the situation changes dramatically.

"Our findings show Antarctic surface melting is not only increasing but spreading into new parts of the continent. This trend will continue if we keep doing business as usual. Just to stabilize melt at current levels, significant cuts in greenhouse gas emissions will likely be needed," said study co-author Professor Nicholas Golledge, a climate scientist at the university.

The modeling showed that temperature increases of roughly 3.5 to 4 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels would push surface melt into regions that have historically seen little to none. An estimated additional 1.58 million square kilometers could experience melting by 2100. Under an extreme scenario where warming exceeds 4 degrees Celsius, the risk becomes even more severe.

Golledge explained what that warming would mean for the ice shelves themselves. "Under a scenario in which global temperatures rise by approximately 3.5 to 4°C above preindustrial levels, increased surface melting around the continent will leave ice shelves much more vulnerable to rapid collapse and sea-level rise. In an extreme scenario where warming rises above 4°C, the risk of rapid collapse becomes even more pronounced," he said.

Ice shelf collapse carries direct consequences for coastal regions around the world. Golledge pointed specifically to New Zealand. "These findings underscore the urgency of reducing emissions. Strong mitigation could stabilize melt, while weaker action leaves Antarctica exposed to rapidly escalating change. We know sea-level rise resulting from ice-sheet collapse would have major implications for coastal communities in Aotearoa New Zealand. Given our long coastline, we're particularly vulnerable to rising seas," he said.

The effects would not stop at sea level. Researchers noted that expanded surface melt increases water availability during Antarctic summers, which could alter surface conditions across the continent. Golledge warned of one specific downstream consequence: "One flow-on effect is the new opportunities this could create for colonization by invasive species in parts of the continent."

Under medium- and high-emissions scenarios, melt rates would continue to accelerate and remain well above current levels through the end of the century. Only the low-emissions pathway showed a realistic path to holding melt near present-day levels. The study results place the turning point at emissions reductions significant enough to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.