Better land use and land management could produce large simultaneous gains in biodiversity, climate protection, and economic growth across most of the world, according to new research published in the journal Science.
A team led by researchers at the University of Minnesota analyzed data from 146 countries. They combined spatial biophysical and economic data with optimization methods to map out what they call sustainable landscape efficiency frontiers. Those frontiers show the best possible combinations of biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, and economic value from agriculture and forestry that each country could theoretically achieve.
In most countries, current land use falls well short of those frontiers. That gap represents missed opportunity. The analysis found the potential to increase climate mitigation by over 200 billion metric tons of CO2 equivalent, which is more than a 20 percent increase, or to raise net economic value by over 350 billion dollars, more than an 80 percent increase, without sacrificing biodiversity or agricultural output.
Those gains would come from two main strategies. The first is land reallocation, which involves selectively restoring forestry areas in highly productive lands. The second is crop intensification, particularly in lower-income countries where agricultural yields are currently low.
"We know we're facing both a climate crisis and a biodiversity crisis, but usually, the pushback against doing something about either is that it's going to cost too much," said lead author Stephen Polasky, a Regents Professor and co-founder of NatCap TEEMs in the University of Minnesota College of Food, Agricultural and Natural Resources Sciences. "One of the main reasons for doing this study was to show, in fact, that there are ways where we can be more efficient and address climate and biodiversity without bankrupting people."
The research is described as a first-of-its-kind analysis at this scale. Polasky noted that the findings are particularly useful for organizations involved in supporting and financing development, including international finance institutions, which often face pressure to choose between environmental and economic goals.
The study does not prescribe specific policies, but its authors say the landscape efficiency frontier model gives governments and multilateral institutions a concrete tool for evaluating tradeoffs. Countries can see what combinations of outcomes are actually achievable before committing to a course of action.
