Temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean have warmed dramatically in 2026, signaling the onset of a strong and potentially historic El Nino. Scientists studying the pattern have now found evidence that recent El Nino events are the most extreme in at least 1,000 years.
The findings come from an unusual source: corals. Researchers traveled to the Galapagos Islands, at the heart of the El Nino pattern, to read climate history recorded in both living and ancient fossil corals. According to a report in Phys.org, those records show that El Nino events have been stronger on average in the past 40 years than at any point in the past millennium, with higher temperatures that lead to more powerful effects on weather around the world.
That intensification coincides with human-caused global warming.
The results, published in the journal Science, suggest that the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Ninos may be early signs of worse events to come as the planet continues to warm. The 1982-83 event alone contributed to flooding in Kenya and Peru, drought in Indonesia and Brazil, and cost the global economy as much as US$4 trillion by some estimates. The 1997-98 El Nino resulted in 23,000 deaths from disease and climate disasters.
The 1982 event had devastating consequences for the Galapagos Islands specifically. A marine heat wave blocked the usual upwelling of cool, nutrient-rich water that fuels the food chain for marine life. More than 95% of Galapagos corals died during that event. Fish, birds, marine mammals, and people who fish for their livelihoods throughout the eastern tropical Pacific were all affected.
El Nino begins in the eastern tropical Pacific as trade winds shift. The warm ocean water that results alters atmospheric circulation above, diverting storm tracks and changing patterns of floods, droughts, and tropical storms across the globe.
Historical records of El Nino are sparse before the era of satellite observations. Long-lived corals growing in the tropical Pacific provide a longer record, which is why the Galapagos Islands were central to this research. In 1983, scientists were caught off guard by the strength of the event already underway, underscoring how limited the historical record had been until now.
With 2026 already showing signs of a strong new El Nino, researchers say the findings carry immediate relevance for weather forecasters, policymakers, and communities in vulnerable regions around the world.
